Projection

AI could make the economy much bigger.

US GDP in 2030 · trillions of dollars at 2025 prices. Uplifts vs. the same economy without AI. [A]

Modest

$34.1T+1.6% vs. no AI

Substantial

$36.3T+8.3% vs. no AI

Extreme

$44.4T+32.4% vs. no AI

Conditional model outputs, not annual growth or probabilities. Omits policy, business cycles, demand/financial disruptions and catastrophic risks. [A]

Anthropic

v1.0 · September 2026 · Modeled US economy

Sources

Snapshot 2026-09-10 · economy-final-2026-09-10

[A] Scenarios for our Economic Future

v1.0 · September 2026 · Modeled US economy · source-verified / modeled

Locator: Finding 1: GDP growth; US GDP in 2030, by scenario; Disclaimer and thanks to reviewers

GDP is calculated at 2025 price levels

Modest: 34.1 trillion USD [A]

Cell: Modest: +1.6%; $34.1T GDP

Locator: Finding 1: GDP growth; US GDP in 2030, by scenario · A-modest-gdp · v1.0 · September 2026

Modeled US economy · United States · 2030

Comparator: Same economy without AI · Denominator: inapplicable: model output; comparator specified separately · N: inapplicable: economic model

Published fixed scenario; see original explorer for task capabilities, adoption, autonomy, productivity and adjustment assumptions. · 2030 · USD at 2025 price levels

Direct transcription; no derived values. Conditional model outputs; not annual growth, probabilities or observed employment. Omits policy responses, business cycles, demand/financial disruptions and catastrophic risks. No technical-report replication established.

Modest: 1.6 % above no-AI comparator [A]

Cell: Modest: +1.6%; $34.1T GDP

Locator: Finding 1: GDP growth; US GDP in 2030, by scenario · A-modest-uplift · v1.0 · September 2026

Modeled US economy · United States · 2030

Comparator: Same economy without AI · Denominator: inapplicable: model output; comparator specified separately · N: inapplicable: economic model

Published fixed scenario; see original explorer for task capabilities, adoption, autonomy, productivity and adjustment assumptions. · 2030 · USD at 2025 price levels

Direct transcription; no derived values. Conditional model outputs; not annual growth, probabilities or observed employment. Omits policy responses, business cycles, demand/financial disruptions and catastrophic risks. No technical-report replication established.

Substantial: 36.3 trillion USD [A]

Cell: Substantial: +8.3%; $36.3T GDP

Locator: Finding 1: GDP growth; US GDP in 2030, by scenario · A-substantial-gdp · v1.0 · September 2026

Modeled US economy · United States · 2030

Comparator: Same economy without AI · Denominator: inapplicable: model output; comparator specified separately · N: inapplicable: economic model

Published fixed scenario; see original explorer for task capabilities, adoption, autonomy, productivity and adjustment assumptions. · 2030 · USD at 2025 price levels

Direct transcription; no derived values. Conditional model outputs; not annual growth, probabilities or observed employment. Omits policy responses, business cycles, demand/financial disruptions and catastrophic risks. No technical-report replication established.

Substantial: 8.3 % above no-AI comparator [A]

Cell: Substantial: +8.3%; $36.3T GDP

Locator: Finding 1: GDP growth; US GDP in 2030, by scenario · A-substantial-uplift · v1.0 · September 2026

Modeled US economy · United States · 2030

Comparator: Same economy without AI · Denominator: inapplicable: model output; comparator specified separately · N: inapplicable: economic model

Published fixed scenario; see original explorer for task capabilities, adoption, autonomy, productivity and adjustment assumptions. · 2030 · USD at 2025 price levels

Direct transcription; no derived values. Conditional model outputs; not annual growth, probabilities or observed employment. Omits policy responses, business cycles, demand/financial disruptions and catastrophic risks. No technical-report replication established.

Extreme: 44.4 trillion USD [A]

Cell: Extreme: +32.4%; $44.4T GDP

Locator: Finding 1: GDP growth; US GDP in 2030, by scenario · A-extreme-gdp · v1.0 · September 2026

Modeled US economy · United States · 2030

Comparator: Same economy without AI · Denominator: inapplicable: model output; comparator specified separately · N: inapplicable: economic model

Published fixed scenario; see original explorer for task capabilities, adoption, autonomy, productivity and adjustment assumptions. · 2030 · USD at 2025 price levels

Direct transcription; no derived values. Conditional model outputs; not annual growth, probabilities or observed employment. Omits policy responses, business cycles, demand/financial disruptions and catastrophic risks. No technical-report replication established.

Extreme: 32.4 % above no-AI comparator [A]

Cell: Extreme: +32.4%; $44.4T GDP

Locator: Finding 1: GDP growth; US GDP in 2030, by scenario · A-extreme-uplift · v1.0 · September 2026

Modeled US economy · United States · 2030

Comparator: Same economy without AI · Denominator: inapplicable: model output; comparator specified separately · N: inapplicable: economic model

Published fixed scenario; see original explorer for task capabilities, adoption, autonomy, productivity and adjustment assumptions. · 2030 · USD at 2025 price levels

Direct transcription; no derived values. Conditional model outputs; not annual growth, probabilities or observed employment. Omits policy responses, business cycles, demand/financial disruptions and catastrophic risks. No technical-report replication established.